If you want the trophy in February, you have to win in April

I have decided to return to the blogosphere with a relatively uncontroversial yet surprisingly enjoyable subject (at least for me) the NFL draft.  I've been writing a few other posts for the last few weeks.  I'll share those when I complete my thoughts.  I may also give an update on my family and my profession, but for now here are my thoughts on the upcoming NFL draft.

Draft Notes

Preface - I love the NFL draft.  I believe championships are won and lost on this day.  Teams that consistently receive value for their pick in April have a better chance of winning in February.  The importance cannot be understated to how well a team will do over the next 5-7 years.  Here are my thoughts on what I think my team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, should or could do this week in the 2012 NFL Draft.

At the conclusion of last year's season team owner Art Rooney came out and said that Ben needed to "tweak his game"  Through much discussion of what "tweak" meant the consensus was that Rooney wants Ben healthy at the end of the year.  In order for that to occur he wants Ben to throw the ball away more often and he wants the offensive line to provide better protection  This is not the first time a Rooney has publicly interjected his thoughts on the team.  Remember when Tommy Maddox was at the helm for a year?  After the 2003 season Dan Rooney came out and said that the team needed to run the ball more next year.  The Steelers ranked 31st overall in Rushing that year.  Well, the Steelers listened in 2004 they finished 2nd in rushing.  Following the 2009 season Rooney also came out and said that the team needed to get more contributions from their rookies.  Once again the Steelers listened.  In 2010 they drafted and started Maurkice Pouncey and got contributions from their young receivers. When the Boss speaks the Steelers have listened.  Protecting Ben and keeping him healthy is the priority lead forth by the guy who signs the checks.  In my opinion that should be the number one priority.  So lets look at the prospects in the offensive line that could help the Steelers.

If O-Line is the priority.  It hasn't been in the past.  Colbert doesn't like the big contracts for Offensive linemen.  He doesn't like the high draft picks for OT.  As I've discussed with a friend, there is a moneyball mentality to this approach.  The Steelers have chosen to spend their money elsewhere.  They haven't spent on wide receivers and they don't spend on offensive tackles.  They have drafted well using a best player available approach, but that has left them thin on the offensive line.  Will they shift their strategy to a needs based approach or will their stick with best player available. Rooney wants Roethlisberger standing.  So, what are the options?

Here are Mike Mayock's top 5 OT, Guards & Centers.

Offensive Tackle

1. Matt Kalil, USC
2. Riley Reiff, Iowa
3. Mike Adams, Ohio State
4. Jonathan Martin, Stanford
5. Cordy Glenn, Georgia

Guard

1. David DeCastro, Stanford
2. Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin
3. Amini Silatolu, Midwestern State
4. Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State
5. Brandon Brooks, Miami (Ohio)

Center

1. Peter Konz, Wisconsin
2. Philip Blake, Baylor
3. Ben Jones, Georgia
4. David Molk, Michigan
5. Michael Brewster, Ohio State

Of those players I believe the following have a chance to be available at 24 and could conceivably have a grade worthy of the 24th pick.

Kevin Zeitler - G
Mike Adams - OT

Jonathan Martin - OT

Peter Konz - C/G

The problem for the Steelers is none of those guys are truly worth the 24th pick.  Pick them there and we reach for a need.  We could trade down to the early portions of the 2nd round and get one of those guys.  So, do they draft another position in round one or do they trade up for an offensive lineman worthy of a first round pick?  If they draft another position could they fill their need in the 2nd with a player like guard Amini Silatolu from Midwestern State?  He has a chance of being available and he would certainly present value in that spot.

Lets look at the options the Steelers have.

1. David DeCastro - guard - Scouts have called him the best Guard prospect since Hutchinson. The problem is there isn't a situation where he would fall to 24th.  He could go as high as 11th.  The Steelers would absolutely have to trade up to get him.  They've done this before.  In 2003 they trades their 3rd and 6th round picks to get safety Troy Polamalu. Moving from 27 to 16.  For the Steelers to get DeCastro he would need to fall to approximately the 16th slot.  It might take more than it took for them to get Troy.  Why would it cost more?  With the rookie salary cap top prospect are worth more because they don't cost nearly as much.  Consider this, Sam Bradford, Jamarcus Russell and Matt Stafford were all #1 picks.  All three QBs signed contracts north of $70 million dollars.  Any guesses on how much last years' #1 received? $22 million for Cam Newton.  Comparatively that is cheap labor.  This is the reason nobody took a run at Mike Wallace this offseason.  Why pay top dollar when you can have inexpensive rookies and you don't give the Steelers another incredibly valuable 1st round pick.

So, back to the draft.  My ultimate scenario is for the Steelers to go up and get DeCastro.  I've been wanting them to go up and get a stud offensive guard for years (Brandon Albert 2008, Mike Pouncey 2011).  It will cost the Steelers a pretty penny, but if protecting Ben is the priority, and DeCastro is as good as they say he is, it's worth the price.  I doubt they will do it.  If DeCastro is gone, we don't want to reach for an offensive lineman at 24 and we want to stick to our rather successful best player available approach then what do we do?

Best Players (Potentially) Available

1. Mark Barron - safety Alabama. My first alternative to an o-lineman is to draft the number 1 safety. The performance by our secondary in the Denver playoff game showed we don't the depth behind Ryan Clark.  More and more teams are utilizing the 2 TE set and having 2 safeties who can cover would go far to be able to shut down teams like the Patriots, Packers & Saints. This pick would also go far in replacing Clark when he retires in the next few years.  Drafting to replace players who are going to retire is something the brass likes to do - see ziggy hood and Cameron Haywood replacing Smith and Hoke.  I'd love a Mark Barron pick.  There is potential he falls, but it is unlikely.

2. Dontari Poe - NT Memphis. Mammoth man who is incredibly fast. Haloti Ngata type build and workout numbers.  Similar to Ngata, Poe didn't have an incredible college career, but NT in the 3-4 scheme don't stand out on the stat sheet like other positions.  I'm growing more and more intrigued by a 345 lb man who can run a sub 5 second 40 yard dash and benching 225 lbs 44 times anchoring our 3-4 NT position for the next 12 years.  Peo rocketed up the draft charts after his combine performance.  He was the projected pick for the Steelers before the combine.  Now there is some talk of him slipping back into the 20s..  If he slips all the way to 24 I find it difficult to believe the Steelers pass on him.  Similar to Barron replacing Clark, Poe would be a true replacement of Hampton when he retires in a few years.  My reservation, do you need a big NT in the 3-4 in the new pass happy NFL?  Is he big, strong and fast enough to push the pocket and get to the qb?  When I think of Dontari I think of Ngata. And when I think of Ngata I think of Ben Roethlisberger walking around with his nose turned sideways. I'd like a young Ngata on my side.  We can all watch Thursday night and hope he keeps slipping.

3. Courtney Upshaw - olb Alabama - In the words of Bill Cowher - rush the quarterback.  Getting pressure on the QB is the name of the game.  A player that could come in and become the next Harrison is always worth a first round pick.  The problem is we use to be able to find these guys in the mid to late rounds.  Upshaw better be the next Harrison, Porter, Gildon, Lloyd if they make this move.

4. Donte Hightower. Consensus mock draft pick for the Steelers. I'm not convinced.  Inside Linebackers in the 3-4 are not your typical 1st round pick.  They already drafted Lawrence Timmons in the first round and having 2 first round picks on a non-priority position such as inside linebackers wouldn't be spreading your picks across your team very well.  In addition I'm not sure Hightower has the build for the new NFL.  At 265 he is a big ILB.  He has straight line speed with a good 40 time, but his lateral movement at the combine was terrible. Not sure I want him covering backs in the flat or a fast pass catching TE.  Similar to Poe, the NFL has evolved the last 10 years.  Teams just don't run as much as they use to. Then again, if you can't stop the run, that is all you will see remember the Jaguar playoff game from a few years ago?  I'm not convinced about drafting another ILB, so I'm nervous about Hightower.

5. Cody Fleener - TE Stanford. I wouldn't be the first time Colbert drafted a TE in round 1. And the patriots' style attack of Grok and Hernandez must be tempting to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley. My concern is we hear every year how we will include Heath more In the offense do we really want another TE to include in a offense that has trouble throwing to our primary TE? 

6. Remaining CB - Alabama cb Dre Kirkpatrick or South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore Janoris Jenkings- All three of these CBs are equally talented and chances are one might slip to 24.  Jenkins is out because of character issues.  One of the other two prospects might be better players and better value for the team, but I'm not sure we need more CBs. Colbert has been drafting a lot of CB over the years and I think that Willie Gay would have had a problem staying in the starting lineup if he didn't leave as a free agent. Lewis, Allen, Butler, Brown have talent. We'll see if one of those young guys can step in across from Ike.

My prediction. With the 24th pick the Steelers will draft Dontari Poe - NT Memphis. 

With their second pick in the 2012 NFL draft the Pittsburgh Steelers pick Amini Silatolu

If that happens, I think it will be good for the Steelers, whatever happens I'll be happy.  I love watching the NFL draft.